TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up – 5/25/2012

The stock market rallied sharply on Monday of last week, and spent the rest of the week battling to hang onto those gains. The Greece/Euro situation continued to put pressure on stocks.

Here are the TSP fund returns for the week of May 21 through 25.

The S&P 500 managed to climb back above the important 200-day EMA this past week, but that rally may have created a bearish bear flag. The key is that 200-day EMA. If it does not hold, we may have to prepare for a sharp breakdown from the flag.

Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Here is the historic season performance surrounding Memorial Day weekend.

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Although there is a lot of green after Tuesday (+1), I am concerned that last week's rally could be reversed in typical holiday reversal action. It's common to see a light volume move in one direction before a holiday, and have it reverse after the holiday. But should that 200-day EMA hold, the indicators suggest the rally could continue.

This is a brief holiday weekend version of the Wrap Up, so have a great Memorial Day weekend!

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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