Despite the S&P 500 being down 3 of the 5 days last week,
the major indices all managed to close in positive territory for the
week, with a strong showing from the small cap and international funds.
The market was bolstered by the Fed’s reassurance of low interest rates
through at least 2014, and left the possibility of a QE3 on the table.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 0.10% on the week, the S-fund gained
1.87%, the I-fund made 1.65%, while the F-fund (bonds) added 0.61%, and
the G-fund was up 0.03%.
For the month, the C-fund is now up 4.81%, the S-fund has gained
8.26%, the I-fund has made 5.98%, while the F-fund (bonds) is up 0.52%,
and the G-fund had made 0.11%.
S&P 500 has remained in a very tight ascending trading channel
since the week prior to Christmas, so the trend traders and “buy and
holders” have been rewarded handsomely. Market timers are having a
little tougher time because this rally has gone on longer than many have
expected, and the indicators have been overbought and extended for a
couple of weeks now.
provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP
The smart money / dumb money confidence indicator from
SentimenTrader.com, which is a compilation of many indicators, shows us
just how bullish the dumb money has become, while the smart money has
provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Whenever we see
this indicator hit 60 more or on one side, and 40 or less in the other,
we have enough of a discrepancy to take note. With the dumb money
currently at 67 and the smart money at 38, this can be considered a
warning sign for the stock market, at least in the short-term.
is historically a tougher month for stocks after coming off of the much
stronger November through January period.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com,
analysis by TSP Talk
It will be tough saying good-bye to January.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with
another TSP Wrap Up.
The legal stuff: This information is for
educational purposes only! This is not advice or are
commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on
this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein
based on this information. We may trade these funds differently
than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies
to determine fund positions.